Greenspan, Alan. 2007. The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World. Penguin Press.
This was a good book. Much-hyped, yes, but it lived up to expectation. After all, one comes almost to expect books by bureaucrats to be self-serving and books by economists... well, it's the rare volume that is merely bland; the majority are also vastly overreaching. And here, the marriage of the two in the self-same person. I was not optimistic. Still, Greenspan is arguably among the smartest and most influential public intellectuals of our day, so I geared up for the expected slog.
Instead of slog, however, The Age of Turbulence was a delight. Especially the first half, which is more memoir and less prognosis. What was it like, in those heady days in Ayn Rand's Manhattan apartment? How did this self-made individual so quickly find himself among the finance cognoscenti? How much of what Greenspan did, and does, is technique? How much art? How much ideology? It's wasn't just the social and intellectual (and of course economic) history that interested me, but the person. Greenspan has been a household name and American newspaper mug for decades. But, who could say they knew the man behind the "Fedspeak"? To this reader, it is above all the personality of the memoirist that carries the story.
Most of what's been written about The Age of Turbulence is Greenspan's self-declared departure from the policies and politics of present White House inhabitants. Fair enough to set the record straight, but in today's climate of dissatisfaction, Greenspan's disavowal comes across as rather less than necessary and quite probably a bit self-serving. But this is beside the point, none of the interesting bits have to do with the current president at all. Rather, they're about former presidents, former policies (wage and price control under Nixon, social security amendments under Regan's, for instance), and what's going on in the rest of the world. One doesn't get the sense that the White House even matters all that much, at least by comparison to the persistence of the business cycle, technological change, and market globalization.
Another delight of this book is its candor. Just like Greenspan-the-chairman, Greenspan-the-memoirist doesn't shy from making judgments. For instance, the smartest president in recent memory (Clinton), the minimal ingredients for economic development (property rights and the rule of law), and above all, the proper relationship of the Federal Reserve Board to the Treasury Department (fully independent). Right or wrong, the opinions are interesting, and judgments are reasoned and reasonable. And, unlike so much pontification by experts, opinion is given on the authority of those reasons, not just the presumed authority of the reasoner.
Really, however, this volume is two books in one cover. The first, we have covered. This is the memorable part. The second is the exercise of former-board-chairman-prerogative to speak on all matters of economic concern, the decline of Europe, emerging markets throughout the world, corporate governance, education, and American's position with respect to each. Unfortunately, while the first book, the memoir, fairly sparkles with sentiment and woos the reader with nuance, the second falls not exactly flat, but rather starts sliding down that oblique ramp of ideology. Partly this is because this the the forward-looking bit. There are no facts of the matter to illuminate when the facts haven't happened yet. And then, what is there left about which to reason, but theory? Ideology edges out the sophisticated reflection of earlier chapters so that the prescription for all anticipated ills, ever freer markets and disdain for all manner of progressive policy, is like aspirin. It gets prescribed for everything, but probably only works under the severest heart attack or mildest headache, and then only for awhile. In most cases true relief requires stronger medicine.
I do not want to end on a critical note, however. There were two gems in this second bit, what I have been calling the second book. The first is a call to the American people to pony up the cost to remedy what is one of our greatest embarrassments-our failure to provide a primary and secondary education that prepares its students to function in the high-tech present, and increasingly information-centered global future. This second is the last chapter, in which Greenspan relaxes his need for data and reliance on the libertarian, free market ideology to speak about what we might expect in the near, but not too near, future. What will the world economic picture be, in the year 2030? What could the world look like? Here we have Greenspan at his best, exercising a skill, economic forecasting, at which he is perhaps unmatched in the world. But, you'll have to read the book to find out the answer.
Concluding thoughts... I approached The Age of Turbulence with little knowledge of the man who wrote it. At the time, my regard for him was unwarranted and inchoate, supported, I suppose, only by his reputation for effectiveness. But, effectiveness can result from many things, some unworthy of regard, like luck. But my regard persisted through the reading. It persisted, notwithstanding political differences, ideological misgivings, and occasional skepticism. Now, on the other side, I find in myself not only a deep regard, but also admiration, for a public intellectual whose ideas and practice have had so much influence in our present age of unreason.
This was a good book. Much-hyped, yes, but it lived up to expectation. After all, one comes almost to expect books by bureaucrats to be self-serving and books by economists... well, it's the rare volume that is merely bland; the majority are also vastly overreaching. And here, the marriage of the two in the self-same person. I was not optimistic. Still, Greenspan is arguably among the smartest and most influential public intellectuals of our day, so I geared up for the expected slog.
Instead of slog, however, The Age of Turbulence was a delight. Especially the first half, which is more memoir and less prognosis. What was it like, in those heady days in Ayn Rand's Manhattan apartment? How did this self-made individual so quickly find himself among the finance cognoscenti? How much of what Greenspan did, and does, is technique? How much art? How much ideology? It's wasn't just the social and intellectual (and of course economic) history that interested me, but the person. Greenspan has been a household name and American newspaper mug for decades. But, who could say they knew the man behind the "Fedspeak"? To this reader, it is above all the personality of the memoirist that carries the story.
Most of what's been written about The Age of Turbulence is Greenspan's self-declared departure from the policies and politics of present White House inhabitants. Fair enough to set the record straight, but in today's climate of dissatisfaction, Greenspan's disavowal comes across as rather less than necessary and quite probably a bit self-serving. But this is beside the point, none of the interesting bits have to do with the current president at all. Rather, they're about former presidents, former policies (wage and price control under Nixon, social security amendments under Regan's, for instance), and what's going on in the rest of the world. One doesn't get the sense that the White House even matters all that much, at least by comparison to the persistence of the business cycle, technological change, and market globalization.
Another delight of this book is its candor. Just like Greenspan-the-chairman, Greenspan-the-memoirist doesn't shy from making judgments. For instance, the smartest president in recent memory (Clinton), the minimal ingredients for economic development (property rights and the rule of law), and above all, the proper relationship of the Federal Reserve Board to the Treasury Department (fully independent). Right or wrong, the opinions are interesting, and judgments are reasoned and reasonable. And, unlike so much pontification by experts, opinion is given on the authority of those reasons, not just the presumed authority of the reasoner.
Really, however, this volume is two books in one cover. The first, we have covered. This is the memorable part. The second is the exercise of former-board-chairman-prerogative to speak on all matters of economic concern, the decline of Europe, emerging markets throughout the world, corporate governance, education, and American's position with respect to each. Unfortunately, while the first book, the memoir, fairly sparkles with sentiment and woos the reader with nuance, the second falls not exactly flat, but rather starts sliding down that oblique ramp of ideology. Partly this is because this the the forward-looking bit. There are no facts of the matter to illuminate when the facts haven't happened yet. And then, what is there left about which to reason, but theory? Ideology edges out the sophisticated reflection of earlier chapters so that the prescription for all anticipated ills, ever freer markets and disdain for all manner of progressive policy, is like aspirin. It gets prescribed for everything, but probably only works under the severest heart attack or mildest headache, and then only for awhile. In most cases true relief requires stronger medicine.
I do not want to end on a critical note, however. There were two gems in this second bit, what I have been calling the second book. The first is a call to the American people to pony up the cost to remedy what is one of our greatest embarrassments-our failure to provide a primary and secondary education that prepares its students to function in the high-tech present, and increasingly information-centered global future. This second is the last chapter, in which Greenspan relaxes his need for data and reliance on the libertarian, free market ideology to speak about what we might expect in the near, but not too near, future. What will the world economic picture be, in the year 2030? What could the world look like? Here we have Greenspan at his best, exercising a skill, economic forecasting, at which he is perhaps unmatched in the world. But, you'll have to read the book to find out the answer.
Concluding thoughts... I approached The Age of Turbulence with little knowledge of the man who wrote it. At the time, my regard for him was unwarranted and inchoate, supported, I suppose, only by his reputation for effectiveness. But, effectiveness can result from many things, some unworthy of regard, like luck. But my regard persisted through the reading. It persisted, notwithstanding political differences, ideological misgivings, and occasional skepticism. Now, on the other side, I find in myself not only a deep regard, but also admiration, for a public intellectual whose ideas and practice have had so much influence in our present age of unreason.
